It kills me, however, that in the final version of the article as it appears, I removed all vestiges of a sneaking suspicion that I had all along, that Bud Adams was going to clean house completely: coach, quarterback, underperforming assistants and players, cheerleaders, equipment managers, etc. Looks like this is coming to fruition. Pity for them, considering the Titans are probably better off keeping Fisher. Pity for me, because if I had gone with the original article I would have looked like a flipping genius. Oh, well.

To the draft, this means the Titans are free to do a number of things: 1) keep Vince Young after all, and set the dangerous precedent I mentioned before. 2) draft Cam Newton, who most likely the Titans would have avoided considering the similarities he shows to a certain QB they were just sending out the door. 3) draft some other QB. I’m convinced Fisher was thinking more in line with grabbing a veteran guy, rather than take his chance on this year’s QB class. Can’t say as I blame him. 4) stay the course and draft the best player available.

Stay tuned. At this point, there’s no telling who the Titans are targeting for a new coach.

Here we go with a non-Andrew Luck, non-Janoris Jenkins, oh-and-on-second-thought-Brandon Harris mock.

1. Carolina Panthers - Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn

Since Andrew Luck decided to return to college, I have been wrestling with the idea of the Panthers selecting Cam Newton with the #1 overall pick. I hated this, and felt the need to shower frequently to cleanse myself, and so no one was happier than me to see three things happen on Monday to change my mind. They were:

a) the announcement that Ron Rivera is the latest head coach of the Panthers.

b) Cam Newton performed admirably Monday night, but did not have the Vince Young Rose Bowl experience.

c) Nick Fairley was un-stinking-blockable, and made a terrific Oregon offense look closer to ordinary than they have looked all season.

The Panthers need a great many things, quarterback among them, but these three facts add up to their selection of Fairley. Rivera is a defensive guy and the Panther defense, along with the Panther offense, stunk. Rivera has coached both a 3-4 and a 4-3 and Fairley could fit in either scheme.

Whereas it’s true that Jimmy Clausen by season’s end had nothing of the swagger he had at Notre Dame, the Panthers looked like a lame duck team all season, just waiting for a new coach to come in and take care of business. Clausen will be a year older, with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart (not to mention Mike Goodson) in the backfield. It’s a risk not taking the quarterback in this position, but too many question marks surround Cam Newton. Fairley is the real deal and showed it time and again this season.

As for A. J. Green, I can’t see a receiver going #1 overall, no matter how good he is, and although the Panthers need a receiver if they are going to forego the pleasures of selecting a quarterback, Fairley’s just too much of a beast.

2. Denver Broncos - Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU

Other than being able to leap tall buildings in a single bound and stopping the underground fire in Centralia, PA, there doesn’t seem to be much that Patrick Peterson cannot do. He’s big (6’ 1”, 222 lbs.), has 4.3 speed, returns kicks and punts, and is the highest-ranked cover corner in the draft. Since Josh McDaniels isn’t around anymore to trade this pick to Bill Belichick for an extra third rounder, the rights to Maurice Clarett and a handful of dust, the Broncos will just have to settle for a guy who will invade Phillip Rivers’ nightmares for years to come.

(Yes, unfair. Shanahan was responsible for drafting Clarett. And in case you were wondering, no, New England doesn’t have the rights to him.)

3. Buffalo Bills - Cam Newton, QB, Auburn

The loss of Luck from this draft probably means the Great Quarterback Stampede of ‘11 theory I gave you last time is probably a bust. But Cam Newton still cracks the top 5.

Buffalo is the first likely candidate to hop on the Cam Newton Hype Train. The Bills have decided to draft Raiders’ style: take the tallest or fastest or biggest and leave it at that. Why else would they have taken C. J. Spiller last year, who looked like Reggie Bush Lite from the very get-go?

If it’s big they want, and if it’s fast they want, and if it’s flashiness and showiness they want, Newton is going to give it to them. He’s going to wow them at personal workouts. He’ll show them his Heisman and his National Championship. He could probably just stand there and remove his shirt for crying out loud.

Newton, as a pro, should have a ceiling of Daunte Culpepper’s career and a basement of JaMarcus Russell. At best, he’s going to be a threat on every play with his arm and his legs, win 10 games and cause opposing defensive coordinators nightmares. But he’s the type of player that can dominate and offense or an entire team, which means: Contain him, and his team has no chance of winning.

I don’t think he’s going to take the “content-to-be-paid” attitude that Russell seemed to have. I would tend more toward Culpepper. Which might not be all that bad.

4. Cincinnati Bengals - A. J. Green, WR, Georgia

Ochocinco and Owens will take their reality show elsewhere, leaving no one for Carson Palmer to overthrow, other than Jerome Simpson, who suddenly and mystifyingly appeared to be an NFL receiver at the end of this year, and Jordan Shipley, who is best served in the slot/Welker role.

Green put up career numbers in receptions despite missing the first four games with a bad case of the NCAAs, and at 6’4” with 4.38 speed, Green would be foolish to pass up. Plus, he has that hint of wrongdoing that the Bengals just love.

5. Arizona Cardinals - Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: The Cardinals didn’t get to be the Cardinals by making good decisions.

Clearly, they need a lot of things. A QB who knows better than to laugh when on the sidelines when his team is getting blown out in a nationally televised game, for instance. A better ownership group would be good, too, but since it’s not possible for longsuffering Cardinal fans to storm the Bastille and overthrow their Bidwill oppressors, there’s not much I can do for them. I’d like to think the Cardinals will make a good decision and take someone besides a QB, but they are going to butcher this decision. Just a matter of how.

Mallett clearly has all the physical tools. He’s tall (6’6”), and can throw through a wall. With Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston still in the fold, he would have plenty of easy targets. The only question about him seems to be the little detail of whether or not he can handle the mental aspects of the game. Which would mean not laughing on the sidelines when his team is getting blown out on national television.

Think you can handle that, Ryan?

6. Cleveland Browns - Julio Jones, WR, Alabama

It seems a shame, with all the Browns need, to go all Wide-Receivery on them, but no doubt this was a huge area of need this last season. Holmgren has probably seen enough moxie from Colt McCoy to keep slinging him out there, and if that’s so, he’ll need a #1 to throw to instead of a mixed bag of #3’s and #4’s.

It will be a toss-up who will ultimately be the better pro: Green or Jones. Both are 6’4”. Green has the faster timed speed to date. Jones has had some issues with drops in college. However, he has all the makings of an all-Pro receiver for years to come, and although on the surface he seems very like a player that the Browns may have selected a few years ago…what was that guy’s name? Brandon? Braymon? LeBron? Something like that.

7. San Francisco 49ers - Jake Locker, QB, Washington

New regime, new quarterback. Blah blah blah.

Personally, I thought Jake Locker had dropped to the second round after his second bad performance against Nebraska. But we forget: there’s a long time between the end of the college season and the NFL Draft. A lot of workouts, the Combine (which a player in his position will carefully avoid) and a whole lot of hype. Plenty of time for us to fall in love with Jake Locker again.

The hiring of Jim Harbaugh in San Francisco should help Locker. Never mind Stanford took apart Washington and gave Locker one of the four horrific stat lines he had this past season, the fact is, Harbaugh had to game-plan against him, and whereas they exploited weaknesses and kept him at bay, think about the mentality of the average NFL coach: The kid has talent. I can fix him.

If he thinks that, he may actually be right. Locker has the most pure NFL-type talent of any quarterback in this class. That doesn’t make me feel any better about this pick, however. He’s at least three years away from being a starting quarterback in this league.

8. Tennessee Titans – Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama

The Titans were a mystery all season long. Jeff Fisher was at odds with his quarterback. Bud Adams was at odds with Jeff Fisher about being at odds with his quarterback. Randy Moss arrived and sat on the bench. Players grumbled. Cortland Finnegan got punched repeatedly in the head. Yet it looks like absolutely nothing will be done about any of this: Fisher will be retained for another year, Young will still be the quarterback, and Cortland Finnegan will continue to get punched in the head, if there’s any justice in this naughty world.

Enter Marcell Dareus. This pick makes absolutely no sense on the surface, but dig deeper, and it doesn’t make any sense there either. The Titans pass defense was mauled last season, Chris Johnson was kept relatively in check, the offense was stagnant with Kerry Collins under center, and about all that went well was the Titans’ ability on run defense. So why bring in Dareus, a d-tackle to wreak havoc up the middle, when that seemed to be the only thing they could do well last year?

Because he’s the best available player, that’s why. And as far as having a blue-chip DT, ask the Lions if they have any regrets swiping up Ndamukong Suh. Or the Ravens when they took Haloti Ngata. Or the Titans themselves when they took Albert Haynesworth. A great tackle can change the entire look of a defense and Jeff Fisher knows that. Dareus won’t (and shouldn’t) escape the top 10.

Side note: if we get to this point in the draft and no quarterbacks are taken, it’s entirely possible we won’t have one in the first round. Just the fact that this is not implausible at all makes this a really weird year indeed.

9. Dallas Cowboys - Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska

The Cowboys are in the incredibly enviable position of being able to draft either Robert Quinn, Da’Quan Bowers, or Prince Amukamara. Bowers doesn’t really fit their scheme. Quinn will most likely have to transition to 3-4 rush linebacker, and whereas the thought of Quinn and DeMarcus Ware rushing the QB at the same time just made Jerry Jones drop his whiskey-and-soda, the smart play is Amukamara.

Big-12 quarterbacks routinely avoided Amukamara’s side. He’s as tall as Patrick Peterson, not as stout, and perhaps as fast. The stats aren’t necessarily there, but look at the quarterbacks in this very draft and their lines against Nebraska this season: Blaine Gabbert went 18 for 42 with a pick. Jake Locker’s line in the two games against Nebraska? 4 for 20, 71 yards and 2 picks in game 1, 5 for 16 and 56 yards in the bowl game.

Jerry dropped his whiskey again.

10. Washington Redskins - Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson

By all rights, Bowers should not be available to the Redskins at the #10. There’s also every chance that Blaine Gabbert, due to the fact that he’s tall and has a good arm, may sneak into this spot even if Bowers is still available, due to the fact that the Redskins are doing the drafting. If such a scenario happens, I would suggest all Redskin fans should consider switching allegiances to the Baltimore Ravens, owing to the fact that it is no longer worth the heartbreak.

Bowers is by far the best defensive player available and the Redskins’ pass rush badly needs help. If it were not for the fact that there are some decent quarterbacks available and there are some real needs at that position, I wouldn’t even think about this far a fall, but it happens every year and every year a team in this section gets a gift tossed their way.

Congratulations, Mike. Don’t blow the opportunity.

11. Houston Texans - Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina

Is there any team in the NFL that has any more glaring weakness than the Houston Texans? They need to take every pick they have and drop them all on defenders. Fortunately for them, this draft is knee-deep in talent on that side of the ball. Ryan Kerrigan of Purdue, Allen Bailey of Miami, and J.J. Watt of Wisconsin are likely choices as well, but Quinn, who sat out the 2010 season with the terminal NCAA’s, can address some needs right away.

For instance, the need to stop the other team from hanging 30+ on them every week.

12. Minnesota Vikings - J. J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin

It would be very easy to mock a quarterback to the Vikings, but even though new regimes often mean new quarterbacks, all indications are the Vikings will look for a veteran guy not named Favre. The only viable first-round QB left at this point would be the previously-mentioned Blaine Gabbert, and I have a sneaking suspicion he’s going to fall off the table once the individual workouts and Combine roll around.

That said, the Vikings are getting old along a defensive front that used to eat running backs for breakfast. Perhaps a patch in the Williams Wall is in order. Watt is big (300 lbs.), quick and has a motor that doesn’t even take a coffee break. It’s possible he could be moved to the inside, and it’s just as possible that he might be a better fit for a 3-4 team as an end, but he’s just too talented to pass up.

13. Detroit Lions – Von Miller, LB, Texas A&M

So Janoris Jenkins decides not to come out in the draft, even though he said he was, and Brandon Harris said he was returning to Miami, only to declare for the NFL. It’s a fun time of the year, people.

I previously had Jenkins going here and stopped myself from simply inserting Harris. We’ll see what happens in the Combine process, but I have a sneaking suspicion Harris will go later on, maybe out of the first round. Cornerbacks always seem to slide forward and back the most during the pre-draft period. Example from 2010: Kareem Jackson was a 3^rd rounder when the process started, and by the time it was finished he was the #20 overall pick.

The Lions finished hot but are still a work in progress. Corner is a serious area of need, but their linebacking corps could use a big boost as well. If it comes down to the #2 corner in the draft (as of now) and the #1 outside linebacker, the Lions should go this route, now that (obligatory Matt Millen dig) Matt Millen isn’t around to draft a wide receiver. And speaking of receivers…

14. St. Louis Rams - Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State

By losing the NFC West’s Lets-See-Who-Sucks-the-Least Bowl, the Rams benefit by jumping up at least seven spots in the draft. In that game, it seemed pretty obvious what the Rams need: someone Sam Bradford can throw the ball to and feel good about himself in the morning. That would be  Justin Blackmon.

A red shirt sophomore, Blackmon lit up the Big-12 all year, temporarily making Cowboy fans forget that rotten Bryant fellow who refused to carry poor, delusional Roy Williams’ pads. In 11 games, Blackmon caught over 100 passes and 18 touchdowns. This, coupled with Steven Jackson, a healthy Donnie Avery, and a young QB who jumped right into the NFL and seemed completely unfazed, should give the Rams a potent attack for years to come.

15. Miami Dolphins – Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama

‘Memba him? Heisman Trophy winner on a National Championship team? Hellooooo?

A knee injury sidelined Ingram for the first two games of 2010 and after an initial burst back on the scene, Nick Saban began to forget he was there, using more of Trent Richardson and freshman Eddie Lacy. You can’t necessarily blame him, but Ingram was not helped by it that much, despite rushing for 875 yards and 13 TD’s.

Ingram is built like Emmitt Smith. He runs like Emmitt Smith. He’s faster in timed speeds than Emmitt Smith and may be better in the passing game than Smith was. He may never have longevity of Smith, but then again, who does?

The Dolphins, long ago, had a chance to draft Emmitt Smith but had taken another Smith, Sammie Smith, in the previous year’s draft. The Dolphins will make the right move this year.

16. Jacksonville Jaguars - Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue

The one thing you could not question about Tyson Alualu, the Jaguars’ #1 pick last year, was his motor. Perhaps Alualu’s selection with the #10 was in reaction to Derrick Harvey, who was nothing but sheer disappointment after being selected with the #8 in the 2008 draft. Whatever the case, two things can be gleaned from the Jaguars’ recent draft history: they take defensive linemen early, and they’ve learned their lesson and are looking for high-motor guys.

This would seem to be Ryan Kerrigan in a nutshell. No one worked harder to get better this last year more than Ryan Kerrigan. He registered 13 sacks, including 4 in a late-season matchup with Michigan, and forced 5 fumbles in 2010. Along the way, every scout has said the same thing: athletic, hard worker.

The Jaguars had only 26 sacks in 2010, an improvement over the abysmal total they had in 2009, but still below average. This pick just makes too much sense.

17. New England Patriots (ripped from Al Davis’ bony grasp) - Aldon Smith, DE/LB, Missouri

I really don’t expect Bill Belichick to hang on to this pick. He will most likely wave his magic wand and turn it into 95 picks in this draft and 147 in the 2012 Draft.

Smith by all rights, is too much of a physical freak to be drafted this late, but there are a lot of factors involved, injuries in college topping the list. There are also a lot of defensive linemen flying around in this draft, and that, coupled with some foolish teams taking quarterbacks too early, will leave a guy like Smith hanging around for New England. Do they plan for this, or are they just lucky?

Smith (at 6’4″ and 258 lbs.) would end up as a linebacker in the Patriots’ scheme.

18. San Diego Chargers - Jon Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh

Is it possible to draft a first round pick with special teams in mind? After all, the Chargers have the #1 offense and #1 defense already.

Just a guess here: the Chargers waged war with Vincent Jackson during the off-season and his days in San Diego may be numbered. Also, the Chargers are awfully fond of tall receivers, and Baldwin is 6’5”. Baldwin’s numbers were not too terribly impressive, but then again, his QB wasn’t, either. If he runs sub-4.5 40’s at the Combine, something he is reportedly capable of doing, Baldwin could very well spike up to this spot in the draft.

Another possibility: Akeem Ayers. The Chargers may have decided that Larry English isn’t going to be the replacement for Shawne Merriman. Ayers is a good all-around outside linebacker who makes big plays. But more on him later.

19. New York Giants - Derrick Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State

It seems a little unfair to draft a tackle with a first round pick, considering the only thing wrong with Giants’ offensive line this year was a rash of injuries, but unless the Giants can figure out a better way to draft their way out of not turning the ball over, this is the way they have to go.

Unless someone steps up his game and makes great strides in the Combine, the offensive linemen in this draft are fairly pedestrian. Sherrod makes the most sense for the Giants because of his experience and his ability to run-block. Now, if only he could convince Eli not to throw interceptions and Ahmad Bradshaw not to fumble the ball, the Giants are set.

20. Tampa Bay Buccanneers - Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa

Congratulations, Bucs! You have the distinction of being the best team that didn’t make the playoffs. Never mind the fact that you have three more wins than another team in the conference who did make the playoffs.

Your consolation prize: Adrian Clayborn. Clayborn is big enough to shift between tackle and end, as he has experience at both positions in college. Both starters at DE for the Bucs in 2010 may be gone in 2011 and if McCoy returns healthy next year, along with Al Woods and/or Brian Price, this Bucs’ line could be very, very dangerous indeed.

21. Kansas City Chiefs - Akeem Ayers, LB, UCLA

As I said before, the Chiefs were a mirage.

You would think after that horrible performance against Baltimore that the Chiefs would go all in on offense, but break it down: the running backs weren’t the problem. The offensive line wasn’t great, but it wasn’t awful. What was really bad about the Chiefs was the play of their quarterback, and they’re not going to replace their quarterback after 27 touchdown passes and only 7 interceptions. So they’re almost forced to go defense.

Let’s just say this: Eric Berry and Tamba Hali are studs. Glenn Dorsey is coming along. But God love him Mike Vrabel is 85 years old and eventually he’s going to stop playing. Ayers has the same penchant for big plays Vrabel did way back when and is 64 years younger.

The Chiefs look like they are one piece away from being a great defense. The offense, with the group they have now and with Charlie Weis abandoning ship for warmer climes, is not going to do any better than they did this past year. They might as well try and win with defense and running game because Cassel is going to be wildly inconsistent.

22. Indianapolis Colts – Nate Solder, T, Colorado

I avoided offensive line last time with the Colts because of the simple fact that they hardly ever draft high with offensive linemen. Look at their current line and you’ll notice all second-day guys and free agents. Still, that’s no reason to think that they won’t eventually pull the trigger.

Solder, a former tight end, is 6’ 9” tall and athletic. Couple that with the fact that left tackle Charlie Johnson is a free agent you start to see the need. However, no tackle, no matter how big or strong, can take care of what was really wrong with the Colts, which was injuries to Dallas Clark, Joseph Addai and Austin Collie.

23. Philadelphia Eagles - Mike Pouncey, C/G, Florida

Michael Vick’s season, coupled with Kevin Kolb’s stumble out of the gate, has made the Eagles jump on the Vick gravy train. What they’ll discover, if they haven’t already, is that taking on Michael Vick means building the entire stinking team around him. One man teams do well, but they hardly ever finish out with a trip to the Super Bowl. Witness Vick’s Falcon teams, the Barry Sanders-era Lions. Even Peyton Manning’s Colts could fall into this category. If you don’t think so, think of what the Colts would be this season with Curtis Painter under center.

Mike Pouncey must love what his brother Maurkice is doing for the Steelers. By making the Pro Bowl, Maurkice just raised Mike’s draft status by a good couple spots. The Eagles will want to protect the coming investment they are going to make in Michael Vick and Pouncey is their best option. He’s used to blocking for a running QB and can play either center or guard.

Why not a tackle, you ask? Obviously Winston Justice’s revolving-door performance against the Packers ensures he will be replaced. At this moment, the only viable option at tackle is Gabe Carimi, and whereas I think Andy Reid might pull the trigger on such a move, I’m equally sure he shouldn’t. pouncey is still the safer, smarter pick.

24. New Orleans Saints - Rahim Moore, S, UCLA

Yes, this pick may seem reactionary, considering the way that the Seahawks slices and diced the Saints secondary in general and Roman Harper in particular. But check this stat out: the Saints had only 9 interceptions during the regular season, following a season where Darren Sharper had 9 interceptions by himself. Sharper, at 35, may not yet be done, but he’s getting close to the end.

Although Moore had only one interception this past season, he had 10 in his sophomore season alone, which is the kind of number Gregg Williams likes to see. This defense thrives on turnovers and if the Saints can get back to their 2009 totals, it would not be a surprise to see them back in the Super Bowl again.

25. Seattle Seahawks – Brandon Harris, CB, Miami (FL)

Shows you what a difference a week makes. Previously I had this pick going to Mikel Leshoure, because the Seahawks obviously needed a battering ram running back. One 67-yard rumble later and Marshawn Lynch is irreplaceable.

Hard to say exactly what the Seahawks need. I don‘t think Charlie Whitehurst is the quarterback of the future (says the guy who didn‘t think that much of Marshawn Lynch), but the problem is, the only guy left who could be a legitimate first rounder (Blaine Gabbert) is almost a carbon copy of Whitehurst. Tall, decent arm, but lacking something, and I’m not sure exactly what.

Brandon Harris is out there, and Kelly Jennings is going in free agency. Due to the fact that Jennings has only 2 interceptions since being selected with the ‘Hawks #1 pick in 2006, they’re probably not going to try and re-sign him, leaving a cornerback slot open. But then, Harris is also a) from “The U,” as Jennings was, b) about the same size as Jennings, and c) not generally known as a ball-(Sea)hawk.

In the battle of Gabbert vs. Harris, I think the Seahawks choose Harris. They gave up 31 passing touchdowns on defense and there’s no way to make that look good.

26. Green Bay Packers - Mikel Leshoure, RB, Illinois

I went linebacker with the Pack last time, but then Erik Walden stepped up and ran over the Bears, plus they have Clay Matthews on the other side. So probably not.

My next thought would be running back. The depth clearly wasn’t there after Ryan Grant went down, but then, lo and behold, James Starks steps up and runs roughshod over the Eagles. More likely, since Starks is an injury risk, and anyway I’m sick of second-guessing myself.

Leshoure brings more of a rugged, rumbling back to Green Bay, the kind who can blister defenses at the back end of games when Grant and Starks are healthy and step in to the starting role when they are not. Leshoure is likely to jump up draft boards here in the late going and unless a skeleton shows up in his closet or an injury rears its ugly head, I have no reason to suspect that he won’t sneak into the first round.

27. New York Jets - Cameron Jordan, DE, California

Just what the Jets need: another defender. Shaun Ellis is a free agent and is 33 years old, so if he gets re-signed, it’s probably not going to be for long. Vernon Gholston will not take over until the light goes on and so far it’s been pretty dim. Jordan already has experience in the 3-4 and although he is considered a second round talent right now, he could make a jump at the Combine.

28. Baltimore Ravens - Corey Liuget, DE/DT, Illinois

Coals to New Castle and defenders to the Ravens. This would give the Ravens a future defensive front of Haloti Ngata, Terrence “Mount” Cody, and Liuget, all of whom probably need to be double-teamed on every play, meaning they could continue to play Ray Lewis in the middle until he’s 50.

The Ravens are smart enough to stock up on quality players at key positions. That’s why they went with Sergio Kindle last year, even though a run of bad luck may keep him off the field for good, and that’s why they grab guys like Paul Kruger.

29. Chicago Bears - Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State

Yes, the Bears need offensive line help in the worst way, but if there’s any chance a player like Paea falls this far, the Bears will jump over the line like Troy Polamalu to get him. Paea looks an awful lot like a young Tommie Harris: big, quick, and if he’s not double-teamed will wreak havoc all day long.

The key to a good cover-2 is always the DT’s. The Williams Wall in Minnesota is a great example, Tampa’s Sapp and McFarland, the Bears with Harris and Tank Johnson. Paea could be that kind of player. Most likely, he’ll be gone by now, but crazier things have happened.

If Paea is gone, which is quite likely, look for a tackle like Anthony Castonzo to go here.

30. Pittsburgh Steelers - Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State

Every year, the Steelers seem to wiggle their way out of not drafting an offensive lineman. They finally pulled the trigger last year, and may have found another perennial Pro Bowler in Maurkice Pouncey. Everyone believes they need help. Which is why they will probably draft another outside linebacker or wide receiver.

This is not the best year for offensive linemen. The best of the year may be Mike Pouncey, who will probably be gone by the time the Steelers draft. Just a guess, but I think Gabe Carimi is going to take a tumble in the pre-draft section of the year. Anthony Castonzo, the more I think about it, doesn’t really fit what the Steelers do.

Heyward was inconsistent but he’s a match made in heaven for the 3-4. The Steelers need to get younger at the position after Aaron Smith lost most of the season to injury, Brett Keisel missed a few games as well, and Ziggy Hood is about a season or two from truly getting’ Ziggy wit’ it. And as the Steelers well know, developing 3-4 ends or even finding them is very difficult.

One strange fact to Heyward’s debit: the Steelers drafted two defenders last year from Ohio State (Thaddeus Gibson and Doug Worthington) and neither made the team.

31. Atlanta Falcons – Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame

Tony Gonzalez, contrary to popular belief, is not going to play forever. If the Falcons manage to get all the way to the Super Bowl and win it, it’s almost a dead certainty that Gonzalez will retire on top. Even if that doesn’t happen, Gonzalez is a free agent in 2011.

Rudolph is easily the best tight end in this draft class, and has been considered the best tight end prospect in college for quite a while. At 6’6” and 265, he presents quite a target, and the 95-yard touchdown pass he received against Michigan was a decided eye-opener.

32. New England Patriots – Stefen Wisniewski, C/G, Penn State

Provided the Patriots keep the first of their first-round picks, and provided they don’t trade this pick , because they also own the next pick…

Logan Mankins looks like he’s Faneca’d his way out of New England and the Patriots will need someone to take his place. Fortunately, they have 857 draft picks in this draft to get it right. Wisniewski has the NFL bloodlines and although he’s not particularly big or strong, he is smart and knows what he’s doing out there.

According to espn.com, Andrew Luck is returning to Stanford for his redshirt junior year. What this means is obvious: I’m taking a shower and then I’m starting my mock draft over again.

 1. Carolina Panthers - Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford, would rather not go in the draft, thank you very much

 2. Denver Broncos - Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU

 3. Buffalo Bills - Cam Newton, QB, Auburn

 4. Cincinnati Bengals – A. J. Green, WR, Georgia

 5. Arizona Cardinals - Nick Fairley, DE, Auburn

 6. Cleveland Browns - Julio Jones, WR, Alabama

 7. San Francisco 49ers - Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas

8. Tennessee Titans - Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama　

9. Dallas Cowboys - Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska

10. Washington Redskins - Jake Locker, QB, Washington

11. Houston Texans - Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson

12. Minnesota Vikings - Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina

13. Detroit Lions – Janoris Jenkins, CB, Florida

14. St. Louis Rams - Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State

15. Miami Dolphins - Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama

16. Jacksonville Jaguars - Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue

17. New England Patriots (ripped from Al Davis’ bony hand) – Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa

18. San Diego Chargers - J. J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin

19. New York Giants - Derrick Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State

20. Tampa Bay Buccanneers – Allen Bailey, DE, Miami (FL)

21. Seattle Seahawks - Mikel Leshoure, RB, Illinois

22. Kansas City Chiefs – Von Miller, LB, Texas A&M

23. Indianapolis Colts – Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh

24. Philadelphia Eagles - Mike Pouncey, C/G, Florida

25. Green Bay Packers - Akeem Ayers, LB, UCLA

26. New Orleans Saints - Daniel Thomas, RB, Kansas State

27. New York Jets - Cameron Jordan, DE, California

28. Baltimore Ravens - Nate Solder, OT, Colorado

29. Chicago Bears - Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State

30. Pittsburgh Steelers - Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College

31. Atlanta Falcons - Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame

32. New England Patriots - Stefen Wisniewski, C/G, Penn State 

In the battle Fisher v. Young, advantage Fisher.

No matter what Titans owner Bud Adams said while the season was going on and no matter what lies could be told about how Fisher and Young could put aside their differences (whatever they may be), hold hands and sing Kumbaya, one or the other had to go. And knock me over with a feather but I would have bet good money that the decision would have gone in Young’s direction rather than Fisher’s. Honestly, I could not be more happy.

Why, you ask? Because in a very small way this means that the NFL, at least for the moment, will not become the NBA. We’ve seen it and seen it: star player A doesn’t like the way coach B is (choose one of the following) not getting him shots, putting talent around him, running practices, making him practice, breathing (ah, the days of Latrell Sprewell) and complains to owner C, media D, twitter followers E, and generally anyone who will listen F. Coach fired, on with the new coach, the beat goes on. Now, bear in mind that these circumstances don’t happen that often; very few NFL players ever achieve the lionized status that NBA stars receive. Peyton Manning, for instance, might be able to get Jim Caldwell fired if it ever came down to it, but you and I both know if LeBron or D-Wade wanted to get rid of that 7-year old boy who serves as their coach, you know it would get done.

If the decision had gone the other way and Vince Young had been the starting quarterback of the Titans next year, that would have set a dangerous precedent. Young put himself in Fisher’s doghouse early and often and no matter how talented Young was and is, the coach is still the coach. Ultimately, if Young had won out, he would have learned nothing and would have continued to not live up to his potential. 

Ultimately, this means Young is looking for work and the Titans will be in the market for another quarterback. They have the number 8 pick overall, which at the moment looks like prime Ryan Mallett/Jake Locker territory. Personally, after all the time and trouble they took to develop Vince Young, I think they may take a deep breath and go the veteran route.

Hey! Maybe they could pick up Matt Leinart!

Or Derek Flipping Anderson.

1. Carolina Panthers - Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

Perhaps the biggest no-brainer #1 overall pick since Reggie Bush. Which is to say, it’s early yet, people. We still have to go through the Combine and the Cam Newton Hype Train to contend with, not to mention that Luck could pull a Leinart on us all and return to college. The Charlotte Observer has already reported the Panthers as saying Luck will be their pick if he declares, and since they really won’t benefit anything by blowing smoke, who am I to disbelieve them?

Luck is a red shirt sophomore, but already appears to have the arm, mobility, and brains to make it big in the NFL. If he slumps back to Stanford, he stands to lose a good chunk of change if he injures himself or regresses, and on top of that he’s very likely to have a coach other than Jim Harbaugh to guide him. No brainer? Sure. For now.

2. Denver Broncos - Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU

Other than being able to leap tall buildings in a single bound and stopping the underground fire in Centralia, PA, there doesn’t seem to be much that Patrick Peterson cannot do. He’s big (6’ 1”, 222 lbs.), has 4.3 speed, returns kicks and punts, and is the highest-ranked cover corner in the draft. Since Josh McDaniels isn’t around anymore to trade this pick to Bill Belichick for an extra third rounder, the rights to Maurice Clarett and a handful of dust, the Broncos will just have to settle for a guy who will invade Phillip Rivers’ nightmares for years to come.

(Yes, unfair. Shanahan was responsible for drafting Clarett. And in case you were wondering, no, New England doesn’t have the rights to him.)

3. Buffalo Bills – Cam Newton, QB, Auburn

Do I agree with this pick? No. But do I see it coming? Yes.

No question that Cam Newton is the most gifted physical specimen in this draft, just as Vince Young was, just as JaMarcus Russell was, but sheer talent can sometimes be a curse. Ask Michael Vick, who breezed through his first couple of years thanks to every blessed piece of talent God can provide, but never really put it all together until he was humbled and learned to work for it. The Newton story sounds remarkably similar to these others. Sooner rather than later some team is going to toss laurels at Newton before he figures out what he’s doing, and then it may be too late.

Buffalo is the first likely candidate to hop on the Cam Newton Hype Train. He’s going to wow them at personal workouts. He’ll rest on his Heisman. He could probably just stand there and get picked first overall for crying out loud. And clearly Buffalo has no idea what they are doing, considering they went in to 2010 with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. No offense, Ryan.

4. Cincinnati Bengals - A. J. Green, WR, Georgia

Ochocinco and Owens will take their reality show elsewhere, leaving no one for Carson Palmer to overthrow, other than Jerome Simpson, who suddenly and mystifyingly appeared to be an NFL receiver at the end of this year, and Jordan Shipley, who is best served in the slot/Welker role.

Green put up career numbers in receptions despite missing the first four games with a bad case of the NCAAs, and at 6’4” with 4.38 speed, Green would be foolish to pass up. Plus, he has that hint of wrongdoing that the Bengals just love.

5. Arizona Cardinals – Nick Fairley, DE, Auburn

The Cardinals clearly need a lot of things. A QB who knows better than to laugh when on the sidelines when his team is getting blown out in a nationally televised game, for instance. A better ownership group would be good, too, but since it’s not possible for longsuffering Cardinal fans to storm the Bastille and overthrow their Bidwill oppressors, the best we can do for them is to give them a rampaging d-end who can rip through an offensive line like buttah.

Fortunately for the Cards, one of their greatest areas of need is perhaps this drafts greatest strength: big, hulking, athletic defensive ends. Fairley, at 6’5” and 298 lbs., passes the Sheer Bigness test that the Cardinals seem to employ (see Branch, Alan or Watson, Gabe), plus he has been clocked at a sub-4.9 in the 40. He tore through the SEC this year and is almost certain to go early.

Be warned, however, gentle Cardinal fan: you know as well as I do your team’s reputation for turning good moves into bad ones.

6. Cleveland Browns – Julio Jones, WR, Alabama

It seems a shame, with all the Browns need, to go all Wide-Receivery on them, but no doubt this was a huge area of need this last season. Holmgren has probably seen enough moxie from Colt McCoy to keep slinging him out there, and if that’s so, he’ll need a #1 to throw to instead of a mixed bag of #3’s and #4’s.

It will be a toss-up who will ultimately be the better pro: Green or Jones. Both are 6’4”. Green has the faster timed speed to date. Jones has had some issues with drops in college. However, he has all the makings of an all-Pro receiver for years to come, and although on the surface he seems very like a player that the Browns may have selected a few years ago, (what was that guy’s name? Brandon? Braymon? LeBron? Something like that.) that was another time and another place and another front office, so that couldn’t possibly happen again.

Heh.

7. San Francisco 49ers – Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas

I thought long and hard about this one. When you have an organization like the 49ers which raises losing to an art form, you have to come up with a draft pick for them that requires no logical sense. A new broom has swept clean (again) and with it comes a new QB (again). The Niners are a prime candidate for Cam Newton, but since I have an equally foolish organization selecting him earlier, the best I can do is Ryan Mallett.

Mallett strikes me as fitting in somewhere on the QB scale as somewhere between Ryan Leaf and Jay Cutler. Not quite as immature as Leaf (and who is?) and not quite as polished as Cutler. Jeff George, in other words. Can throw through the wall of a bank vault and probably will someday because some guy in a bar bet him he couldn’t. Probably jump to a few teams along the way, teasing them with unbelievable touchdown passes thrown with pinpoint accuracy, followed by impossibly ridiculous interceptions thrown into quadruple coverage. That guy.

To be fair, Niner fans, I would love to hand Mallett off to the Redskins, but you need a QB and he’s the best available (or so says Conventional Wisdom) available.

8. Tennessee Titans - Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama

The Titans were a mystery all season long. Jeff Fisher was at odds with his quarterback. Bud Adams was at odds with Jeff Fisher about being at odds with his quarterback. Randy Moss arrived and sat on the bench. Players grumbled. Cortland Finnegan got punched repeatedly in the head. And now, Fisher will be retained for another year, Vince Young is looking for work, and Cortland Finnegan will continue to get punched in the head, if there’s any justice in this naughty world.

Enter Marcell Dareus. This pick makes absolutely no sense on the surface, but dig deeper, and it doesn’t make any sense there either. The Titans pass defense was mauled last season, Chris Johnson was kept relatively in check, the offense was stagnant with Kerry Collins under center, and about all that went well was the Titans’ ability on run defense. So why bring in Dareus, a d-tackle to wreak havoc up the middle, when that seemed to be the only thing they could do well last year?

Because he’s the best available player, that’s why. And as far as having a blue-chip DT, ask the Lions if they have any regrets swiping up Ndamukong Suh. Or the Ravens when they took Haloti Ngata. Or the Titans themselves when they took Albert Haynesworth. A great tackle can change the entire look of a defense and Jeff Fisher knows that. Dareus won’t (and shouldn’t) escape the top 10.

9. Dallas Cowboys - Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska

The Cowboys are in the incredibly enviable position of being able to draft either Robert Quinn, Da’Quan Bowers, or Prince Amukamara. Bowers doesn’t really fit their scheme. Quinn will most likely have to transition to 3-4 rush linebacker, and whereas the thought of Quinn and DeMarcus Ware rushing the QB at the same time just made Jerry Jones drop his whiskey-and-soda, the smart play is Amukamara.

Big-12 quarterbacks routinely avoided Amukamara’s side. He’s as tall as Patrick Peterson, not as stout, and perhaps as fast. The stats aren’t necessarily there, but look at the quarterbacks in this very draft and their lines against Nebraska this season: Blaine Gabbert went 18 for 42 with a pick. Jake Locker’s line in the two games against Nebraska? 4 for 20, 71 yards and 2 picks in game 1, 5 for 16 and 56 yards in the bowl game.

Jerry dropped his whiskey again.

10. Washington Redskins - Jake Locker, QB, Washington

Sometimes I think you need two drafts: the one that you would do yourself if you had the choice, and the one with the choices you know each individual team is going to make. By no means do I agree with this pick, but the Redskins are the perfect storm of how-I-would-not-draft. Mike Shanahan frequently makes moves that make me shake my head, and so did the Redskins organization before Shanahan got there, so it would make perfect sense for them to take someone I wouldn’t draft in this position.

First, the Redskins are once again in the market for a quarterback. Second, look at the last quarterback Shanahan drafted, Jay Cutler. Tall, rocket arm. So, Ryan Mallett, right? Wrong. This year promises to be a quarterback feeding frenzy, but don’t think in terms of the ‘83 draft or even the ‘04 draft. Think more ‘99. The Akili Smith, Tim Couch, Cade McNown draft. The one where the Eagles lucked out and swiped Donovan McNabb in all that mess.

I had to mention McNabb, and there it was.

Anyway.

For sure, Locker passes the eye test: 6’3” and 230. The arm is there and he’s very mobile. But after an underwhelming senior season, he’s clearly the guy on the tail end, the guy leading the second pack of runners. This pick may come down to Locker or Blaine Gabbert, who is a little taller and has an arguably better arm, but frankly I’m not sold on either one.

11. Houston Texans - Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson

Is there any team in the NFL that has any more glaring weakness than the Houston Texans? The Texans need to take every pick they have and drop them all on defenders. Fortunately for them, this draft is knee-deep in talent on that side of the ball.

Bowers, after a junior season that fulfilled every promise, really should be a top-10 pick. Maybe top-5. He rolled through the ACC and registered 16 sacks in 2010. If selected here, the Texans would have bookends of Mario Williams and Bowers. Jerry Jones spilled his drink again, but this time it was just a coincidence.

If the draft falls this way, the Texans will have a choice of Bowers, Robert Quinn, Ryan Kerrigan of Purdue, Allen Bailey of Miami, and perhaps J.J. Watt if he leaves school early. That’s a pretty nice spot to sit in.

12. Minnesota Vikings - Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina

It would be very easy to mock a quarterback to the Vikings, but even though new regimes often mean new quarterbacks, all indications are the Vikings will look for a veteran guy not named Favre. The only viable first-round QB left at this point would be Blaine Gabbert, and I have a sneaking suspicion he’s going to fall off the table once the individual workouts and Combine roll around. I could be wrong, but someone does this every year.

That said, the Vikings are getting old along the defensive front that used to eat running backs for breakfast. Quinn is a bit of a wild-card after sitting out a season with a terminal case of the NCAAs, but he showed great pass-rush ability in 2009 and at 6’5” and 270 lbs. he should be right at home as D-end in the 4-3 across from Jared Allen.

13. Detroit Lions - Janoris Jenkins, CB, Florida

It’s amazing what a team can do when it doesn’t have Matt Millen clouding up its front office. The Lions finished on a four-game win streak, and might have finished with a winning record had it not been for a) Matthew Stafford’s injuries and b) one of the worst calls in NFL history when Calvin Johnson’s game-winning touchdown against the Bears in week 1 was called back for reason of insanity. Que sera, sera.

That said, the Lions still have a few weaknesses to address. Their linebacking corps could use a big boost this off-season. As of this moment, Akeem Ayers and Von Miller look like the most likely candidates, but to take either one in this position seems a bit of a reach.

Jenkins should be the last corner taken in the first round, depending on how much Ras-I Dowling can recover from an injury-plagued senior season. He has rare speed and the underwhelming stats of a corner that quarterbacks are wise to avoid, but lacks the size of the other two top-flight corners in the draft. The Lions could stand an upgrade at the position.

14. St. Louis Rams - Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State

By losing the NFC West’s Lets-See-Who-Sucks-the-Least Bowl, the Rams benefit by jumping up at least seven spots in the draft. In that game, it seemed pretty obvious what the Rams need: someone Sam Bradford can throw the ball to and feel good about himself in the morning. That would be  Justin Blackmon.

A red shirt sophomore, Blackmon lit up the Big-12 all year, temporarily making Cowboy fans forget that rotten Bryant fellow who refused to carry poor, delusional Roy Williams’ pads. In 11 games, Blackmon caught over 100 passes and 18 touchdowns. This, coupled with Steven Jackson, a healthy Donnie Avery, and a young QB who jumped right into the NFL and seemed completely unfazed, should give the Rams a potent attack for years to come.

15. Miami Dolphins - Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama

‘Memba him? Heisman Trophy winner on a National Championship team? Hellooooo?

A knee injury sidelined Ingram for the first two games of 2010 and after an initial burst back on the scene, Nick Saban began to forget he was there, using more of Trent Richardson and freshman Eddie Lacy. You can’t necessarily blame him, but Ingram was not helped by it that much, despite rushing for 875 yards and 13 TD’s.

Ingram is built like Emmitt Smith. He runs like Emmitt Smith. He’s faster in timed speeds than Emmitt Smith and may be better in the passing game than Smith was. He may never have longevity of Smith, but then again, who does?

The Dolphins, long ago, had a chance to draft Emmitt Smith but had taken another Smith, Sammie Smith, in the previous year’s draft. The Dolphins will make the right move this year.

16. Jacksonville Jaguars – Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue

The one thing you could not question about Tyson Alualu, the Jaguars’ #1 pick last year, was his motor. Perhaps Alualu’s selection with the #10 was in reaction to Derrick Harvey, who was nothing but sheer disappointment after being selected with the #8 in the 2008 draft. Whatever the case, two things can be gleaned from the Jaguars’ recent draft history: they take defensive linemen early, and they’ve learned their lesson and are looking for high-motor guys.

This would seem to be Ryan Kerrigan in a nutshell. No one worked harder to get better this last year more than Ryan Kerrigan. He registered 13 sacks, including 4 in a late-season matchup with Michigan, and forced 5 fumbles in 2010. Along the way, every scout has said the same thing: athletic, hard worker.

The Jaguars had only 26 sacks in 2010, an improvement over the abysmal total they had in 2009, but still below average. This pick just makes too much sense.

17. New England Patriots (ripped untimely from Al Davis’ bosom) - Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa

I really don’t expect Bill Belichick to hang on to this pick. He will most likely wave his magic wand and turn it into 95 picks in this draft and 147 in the 2012 Draft.

If I had to make a choice for the Patriots, and bear in mind they always seem to pick someone better than the guy I think they should draft, I would see it is Clayborn. This draft has an unusually high number of defensive linemen in the 6’4”, 290 lb. range who would be perfect for the 3-4.

Clayborn flies a bit under the radar because his numbers are down from a spectacular 2009 season and because he punched a cab driver. Bear in mind, however, for an Iowa football player this year, this may be considered good behavior.

Clayborn, JJ Watt, Allen Bailey, Cameron Jordan and possibly Cameron Heyward are all first rounders who could end up starting at end for a 3-4 defense. Don’t count out Clayborn’s teammate Christian Ballard, either.

18. San Diego Chargers - J. J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin

Is it possible to draft a first round pick with special teams in mind? After all, the Chargers have the #1 offense and #1 defense already.

Jacques Cesaire is a decent player, but as I said before, this draft is full of 3-4 ends, and they don’t come around that often. Honestly, the Chargers probably need a rush linebacker more than an end right now, so they may chuck it and go with Akeem Ayers, but Watt looks to good to pass up. He had the strength and the motor and at 6’5” and 300 he can be darn near unblock able at times. A. J. Smith is no dummy.

19. New York Giants - Derrick Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State

It seems a little unfair to draft a tackle with a first round pick, considering the only thing wrong with Giants’ offensive line this year was a rash of injuries, but unless the Giants can figure out a better way to draft their way out of not turning the ball over, this is the way they have to go.

Unless someone steps up his game and makes great strides in the Combine, the offensive linemen in this draft are fairly pedestrian. Sherrod makes the most sense for the Giants because of his experience and his ability to run-block. Now, if only he could convince Eli not to throw interceptions and Ahmad Bradshaw not to fumble the ball, the Giants are set.

20. Tampa Bay Buccanneers - Allen Bailey, DE, Miami (FL)

Congratulations, Bucs! You have the distinction of being the best team that didn’t make the playoffs. Never mind the fact that you have three more wins than another team in the conference who did make the playoffs.

Your consolation prize: Allen Bailey. Bailey could shift between tackle and end, as he has experience at both positions in college. Both starters at DE for the Bucs in 2010 may be gone in 2011 and if McCoy returns healthy next year, along with Al Woods and/or Brian Price, this Bucs’ line could be very, very dangerous indeed.

21. Seattle Seahawks - Mikel Leshoure, RB, Illinois

Hard to say exactly what the Seahawks need. They need a new QB, but the problem is, the only guy left who could be a legitimate first rounder (Blaine Gabbert) is almost a carbon copy of the guy you already have waiting in the wings (Charlie Whitehurst).

The Seahawks already have Marshawn Lynch, but an upgrade at this position wouldn’t hurt at all, especially if the Seahawks find themselves in this position. Right now, Leshoure is considered an early second rounder, but I think this will change. Following Ingram there is a log-jam of running backs who could all go in this position: Demarco Murray, Daniel Thomas, Ryan Williams. Leshoure is the biggest of the bunch and has been steadily rising up draft boards since the beginning of the season.

22. Kansas City Chiefs - Von Miller, LB, Texas A&M

Red flag of the day: Charlie Weis leaves an offensive coordinator job in the NFL to take an offensive coordinator position in college. Remember when Mike Nolan left the d-coordinator job in Denver after turning their nonsense around in a year, and what happened to the Broncos and Josh McDaniels following that?

All that to say this: I think the Chiefs are a mirage. The AFC West was pretty flabby this year and the Chiefs caught a lot of breaks. This really has nothing to do with how they will draft this year; just don’t be surprised if they suddenly discover that their offense isn’t as good as they think it is come 2012.

Mike Vrabel will have to be replaced someday. The Chiefs play 3-4 and 4-3 so they need a linebacker who can handle it. Miller is a rare commodity, considering he has already played 3-4 in college. He ran over pretty much everything in his path in 2009 and 2010, logging 27 sacks and showing improved play in pass defense.

23. Indianapolis Colts – Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh

At second thought, I considered this to be not the smartest pick in the world, but then again, wait a minute: the only reason Peyton Manning had a “down” season this year was due to a couple of missing pieces, namely Dallas Clark and Austin Collie. Pierre Garcon is OK but his weaknesses were starting to show this last year. Blair White is Blair White. Jacob Tamme is pretty good. But without Clark and Collie, teams are just going to double-team Reggie Wayne and trust their luck.

Yes, the Colts could go offensive line, but they rarely do that: their current offensive line is all second-day choices and free agents. Stefen Wisniewski, Mike Pouncey, even Nate Solder might fit in here, but I think this makes a little more sense. Baldwin is tall (6’5”), reportedly runs a sub 4.5 40, and would be a different kind of weapon in the Colts’ arsenal.

24. Philadelphia Eagles – Mike Pouncey, C/G, Florida

Michael Vick’s season, coupled with Kevin Kolb’s stumble out of the gate, has made the Eagles jump on the Vick gravy train. What they’ll discover, if they haven’t already, is that taking on Michael Vick means building the entire stinking team around him. One man teams do well, but they hardly ever finish out with a trip to the Super Bowl. Witness Vick’s Falcon teams, the Barry Sanders-era Lions. Even Peyton Manning’s Colts could fall into this category. If you don’t think so, think of what the Colts would be this season with Curtis Painter under center.

Mike Pouncey must love what his brother Maurkice is doing for the Steelers. By making the Pro Bowl, Maurkice just raised Mike’s draft status by a good couple spots. The Eagles will want to protect the coming investment they are going to make in Michael Vick and Pouncey is their best option. He’s used to blocking for a running QB and can play either center or guard.

25. Green Bay Packers - Akeem Ayers, LB, UCLA

I’m being a copycat on this one, but I don’t care. Almost every mock draft I’ve seen thus far has Ayers going to the Packers and I’m not about to break the trend, because Ayers would be a nasty addition to the Packers already-tough D. Frank Zombo, God love him, is not the answer, unless the question is: Whose name is listed last in an alphabetical list of Packers’ players?

But I kid the Zombo.

26. New Orleans Saints – Daniel Thomas, RB, Kansas State

Interesting stat: the Saints had only 9 interceptions on defense this year. I might think the Saints would go DB here if they didn’t already do that last year, and if there were any DB worthy of a first round pick still available. There isn’t as of yet, but that could change come Combine time.

But where do the Saints pick? Offensive line? Possible, but again, this is not going to be a strong year for linemen. Defensive line is another strong possibility. Alex Brown delivered all of 2 sacks and at age 31 he looks like nothing more than a stopgap measure. Cameron Jordan is a possibility here, although he played the 3-4 in college. Cameron Heyward, too, but unless he makes a late push at the Combine he looks like a sure second-rounder.

I choose running back. They’re probably done with Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush gets injured with more regularity than a quality tester at Pepto-Bismol, and even though Chris Ivory did well coming out of nowhere in relief, he was just as injured as everyone else. Thomas is a bigger back who provides a little more stability to the position, allowing Bush to come in and do his thing for 10-15 plays before he pulls a groin muscle.

27. New York Jets - Cameron Jordan, DE, California

Just what the Jets need: another defender. Shaun Ellis is a free agent and is 33 years old, so if he gets re-signed, it’s probably not going to be for long. Vernon Gholston will not take over until the light goes on and so far it’s been pretty dim. Jordan already has experience in the 3-4 and although he is considered a second round talent right now, he could make a jump at the Combine.

28. Baltimore Ravens - Nate Solder, OT, Colorado

Joe Flacco was sacked 40 times this year. Ray Rice averaged right at 4 yards a carry after averaging 5.3 in 2009, and although he was pretty good down the stretch, you have to wonder why he only had 19 yards on 54 carries against the rotten Texan defense. Or how the Texans sacked Flacco 5 times. Without Mario Williams.

I debated between Solder and Gabe Carimi in this spot and finally concluded that Carimi was very similar to what they already have: a stiff mauler who can punish you in the run game but who will probably get beat by speed off the edge. Solder, a former tight end, is tall (6’9”) and has been timed at 4.8 in the 40.

So if Michael Oher moves back to the right (non-blind) side, how does this affect how we view Michael Lewis’s book and the movie? Just curious.

29. Chicago Bears - Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State

After cursing out the Ravens under their breath for taking the player who would probably fit the Bears style of play, Lovie Bear goes to plan B. Yes, the Bears need offensive line help in the worst way, but if there’s any chance a player like Paea falls this far, the Bears will jump over the line like Troy Polamalu to get him. Paea looks an awful lot like a young Tommie Harris: big, quick, and if he’s not double-teamed will wreak havoc all day long.

The key to a good cover-2 is always the DT’s. The Williams Wall in Minnesota is a great example, Tampa’s Sapp and McFarland, the Bears with Harris and Tank Johnson. Paea could be that kind of player. Most likely, he’ll be gone by now, but crazier things have happened.

30. Pittsburgh Steelers - Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College

Every year, the Steelers seem to wiggle their way out of not drafting an offensive lineman. They finally pulled the trigger last year, and may have found another perennial Pro Bowler in Maurkice Pouncey. Everyone believes they need help. Which is why they will probably draft another outside linebacker or wide receiver.

But just for the sake of argument, let me put another tackle on their roster. Again, Carimi’s name comes up and again I’m not sold. Maybe it’s because the Steelers took Wisconsin’s Kraig Urbik a few years ago and did absolutely nothing for them. Carimi carries with him the dreaded “waist-bender” tag

Castonzo is more of an athlete and bulked up during his senior season without having any problems. He’s probably the best player available at this point.

31. Atlanta Falcons - Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame

Tony Gonzalez, contrary to popular belief, is not going to play forever. If the Falcons manage to get all the way to the Super Bowl and win it, it’s almost a dead certainty that Gonzalez will retire on top. Even if that doesn’t happen, Gonzalez is a free agent in 2011.

Rudolph is easily the best tight end in this draft class, and has been considered the best tight end prospect in college for quite a while. At 6’6” and 265, he presents quite a target, and the 95-yard touchdown pass he received against Michigan was a decided eye-opener.

32. New England Patriots - Stefen Wisniewski, C/G, Penn State

Provided the Patriots keep the first of their first-round picks, and provided they don’t trade this pick , because they also own the next pick…

Logan Mankins looks like he’s Faneca’d his way out of New England and the Patriots will need someone to take his place. Fortunately, they have 857 draft picks in this draft to get it right. Wisniewski has the NFL bloodlines and although he’s not particularly big or strong, he is smart and knows what he’s doing out there.

Just to stay on the positive side, I’ll start by taking a look at the five players I think have the greatest chance to succeed. We can always get to the busts later.

1. Gerald McCoy, DT, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

It was no secret before the draft that given a choice between the two, the Buccaneers would have preferred Suh over McCoy, but the fact of the matter is, McCoy is a better fit for Tampa, where he’ll get the chance to use his quickness to shoot gaps and be disruptive.

So why McCoy and not Suh? Several reasons. Suh has every bit of pressure on him in Detroit, where he’s expected to be the savior of that defense, while McCoy can just do his thing in Tampa and quietly build his reputation. McCoy is also a talker, which will get him in good with the media, so, and like this or not, McCoy may be very good, but perceived to be better than he is based on his Q rating (see Sapp, Warren). Suh is also playing in Detroit, where things tend to go wrong, and quickly, whereas yes, Tampa has been a shell of its former self lately, they’d need a lot more to go wrong to feel the nameless dread Lions fans must feel. Perhaps if the Bucs were to hire Matt Millen…

Don’t get me wrong: Suh may end up being everything he’s advertised to be, but unfortunately for him, that’s what’s expected of him. Anything less than a bust in Canton is going to be a disappointment. For now, the money is on McCoy.

2. Ryan Mathews, RB, San Diego Chargers 

Yes, perhaps it’s not particularly fair to say Suh will not outstretch McCoy because of the pressure, whereas Mathews is charged with replacing a legend, but take this into account: the recent grumblings from current Charger players aren’t a fluke. Although his touchdown numbers were still high, Tomlinson was slowing down noticeably, and the balance of the San Diego offense leaned extremely heavy toward the passing game.

Mathews is on this list because there are enough weapons around him to make him successful. He is big enough to carry the load, fast enough to hit the holes, and he doesn’t have the wear and tear most backs have coming out of college. In general, running backs also enjoy the more early success than players at other positions because the ground game is the one aspect that doesn’t change that much from college to the pros.

Again a comparison: why Mathews and not C. J. Spiller? First, Mathews will have more face time. Spiller will be sharing the backfield with Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch. Mathews is built more along the lines of his predecessor. Spiller is built more along the line of Reggie Bush, only with less hype. And lest we forget, A. J. Smith is very, very good at evaluating talent, and he saw fit to trade up for Mathews.

When C. J. Spiller runs a kick back for a touchdown this season, which most likely he will if given a free chance, don’t get too excited. Ted Ginn has done the same.

3. Brandon Graham, DE, Philadelphia Eagles

They love his motor. You heard it over and over again pre-draft. It wasn’t just the Eagles who loved his motor, it was the Steelers, and it was the Patriots, who might have drafted him themselves had they been able to make the right deal. Instead, it was the Eagles who moved up and got him. When three of the best franchises in the league are falling all over themselves to draft a guy, you can’t ignore him. Look at the official picture of him. Do you want to mess with this guy?

He was considered a bit small coming out of Michigan, but the Eagles have another player of a similar size named Trent Cole…perhaps you’ve heard of him? The Eagles love the type of player Graham is and they will send him flying off the edge any time anywhere. Of all the players on this list, Graham may be in the best position of anybody to achieve success. He fits the system, he’s going to work hard, and he’s going to kick you into next week if you’re on the other side of the line from him.

Comparison: Why not Jason Pierre-Paul or Derrick Morgan? JPP, drafted by the Giants, has all the athletic ability in the world, but then so did MK, Mathias Kiwanuka. Although Kiwanuka replaced Osi Umenyiora during the latter stages of 2009, no one was particularly impressed. JPP is relatively new to all this, and will probably take some time.

Morgan has all the experience in the world, and should make a good pro. In fact, he’d probably be 5a on this list, as he should fit in very well on the Titans. Still, I think there was a reason Graham was taken before Morgan, and that we’re going to see why right away this season.

 4. Russell Okung, OT, Seattle Seahawks

Normally, I wouldn’t think of putting an offensive lineman in this list but there are two words that made me think twice about this: Alex Gibbs. Gibbs was the architect behind the zone-blocking scheme that made the Broncos so good under Mike Shanahan, the one that made such luminaries as Olandis Gary into 1000-yard backs.

Another reason: Okung is what you draw up on the board when you think of a left tackle. Massive with long arms, good balance, and a passion for the game.

Now then, to the obvious question: how can you say that there’s a reason why Brandon Graham was drafted ahead of Derrick Morgan and then turn right around and put a player on this list who was drafted behind a player who plays the same position, not once, but twice?

First, it’s my list. So, nyah.

Second, the team drafting a tackle before Okung was the Washington Redskins and Mike Shanahan. Yes, Shanahan was right to draft Ryan Clady two years back so he should know a thing or two about drafting offensive tackles, but then again, he also had ALEX GIBBS on his coaching staff. And Clady also wasn’t the first tackle taken that year. Double nyah.

Third, Trent Williams should be fine. Or not. Or the Curse of Daniel Snyder will be upon his head and he’ll fail to live up to expectations, just like all the other Redskins’ free agents, head coaches and draft picks. Okung was clearly the man from day one and if not for Williams’ phenomenal run in the 40 time at the Combine and a gut feeling from the Redskins’ brass, he would have been the 4th pick overall. As it stands, Okung fell to the Seahawks and the Seahawks thank their lucky stars.

Does this mean I think the Redskins don’t know what they’re doing? Yes, it does. Nyah on you, Daniel Snyder.

 5. Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys

Controversy? Check.

So he refuses to carry Roy Williams’ shoulder pads. Big deal. The Cowboys have been carrying all 215 pounds of the man for a season and a half. Williams will either play better this year—way better—or he’ll be shipped off, end of story.

Miles Austin jumped up out of nowhere last year and grabbed the spotlight. But even though he was phenomenal at times, I still have a little trouble believing it. Perhaps it was because I went through Marcus Robinson’s rise and flame-out in Chicago, I’m not sure, but I have a sneaking suspicion Miles Austin is going to fade. Even if he doesn’t, there’s catches enough for everyone in Tony Romo’s world.

That leaves Bryant.

Bad attitude? Perhaps. But doesn’t he share that with, oh, I don’t know…practically every successful receiver we’ve seen in the last ten years? Certainly every receiver on the Bengals this year, at least. Maybe it doesn’t win friends and influence people, but it does seem to get you the football 90 times a year.

On talent, no one questions Bryant. On the other side, he’ll be in a pressure-cooker in Dallas. He’s also going to have to work hard, which is where guys with reputations like Bryant’s often trip up. If he does that, unless he breaks his collarbone a few times and changes his name to Charles Rogers, he’ll be a success. If he doesn’t, you might as well put him on the bust list right away.

I’ll go out on a limb and say he’s motivated enough to make himself a star.

The comparison: Demaryius Thomas, taken two spots ahead of Bryant. Thomas is big, fast, with suspect hands. He played in an oddball offense in college which made teams so afraid of the run that he got open just by running straight down the field as fast as he could. In short, Thomas’s ceiling is more or less Braylon Edwards: flashes of brilliance, followed by complete disappearing acts. Bryant proved himself in a pro-style offense, runs well, catches well, and has Tony Romo as his quarterback rather than Kyle Orton. Advantage: Bryant.

Honorable Mention:

Eric Berry, S, Chiefs. Scott Pioli must have pulled a hammy when he went against all his principles and drafted a safety in the first round rather than a big ugly. That’s a testament to Berry’s talent. He may surprise us all and be the star of this draft.

Maurkice Pouncey, C/G, Steelers. We all know the Steelers offensive line woes. A man of Pouncey’s talent could get all of Steeler Nation behind him, especially if he knocks a number of defenders out of Rashard Mendenhall’s way.

Earl Thomas, S. Seahawks. It’s rare when two players at the same position, especially when there are two players considered 1a and 1b in the draft, both do well. It’s just as rare that a team drafts two players in the first round and both do well. So what if it’s rare? Thomas is awfully good and there’s no reason to think he won’t be an NFL star.

Derrick Morgan, DE, Titans. He fits exactly what the Titans want to do. And if he can sack Peyton Manning a few times, Titans fans will carry him off the field on their shoulders.

According to ESPNDallas.com, Roy Williams is confident that he will hold off Dez Bryant for the starting spot across from Miles Austin. In 20 games with the Cowboys, Williams has caught 55 passes. To compare and contrast, Jason Witten has caught over 100 in that span. Austin caught 81 last year alone. Williams dropped eight passes last year against seven touchdowns, and caught only 2 passes in the Cowboys’ last three regular season games. Yep, his job is secure.

But then again, can we ever forget the quote he gave following a loss to the Seahawks in 2006: “It’s stupid how close we came to scoring 40 points.” The Lions lost that game 9-6.

His quote this time: “I’m going to look at this thing like I’m the man, like I’ve always been. And that’s never going to change.”

Well, you can look at it that way, Roy.

New England Patriots 10-6 in 2009.

New York Jets 9-7 in 2009.

Miami Dolphins 7-9 in 2009.

Buffalo Bills 6-10 in 2009.

Cincinnati Bengals 10-6 in 2009.

Baltimore Ravens 9-7 in 2009.

Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7 in 2009.

Cleveland Browns 5-11 in 2009.